Warren Central
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #133
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #37
Rushville Regional Rank #7
Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rank #7
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 2.3%
Advance to Regional 79.3%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Arabian Roundup Marion County Championship Brownsburg Invitational CougarPalooza Invitational Wildcat Classic Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Invitational Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/25 8/27 9/3 9/7 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 1,052 1,159 1,192 1,340 969 1,063 1,052 1,103 1,244 1,174
Team Adjusted Rating 1,011 1,044 1,222 969 1,029 1,052 1,015 1,139 1,081
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Arabian Roundup Marion County Championship Brownsburg Invitational CougarPalooza Invitational Wildcat Classic Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Invitational Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
739  Jacqueline Hartman 11 22:05 22:39 22:39 21:48 22:29 22:01 22:01 22:08 21:47 22:16 22:03
740  Madelin Nouel 10 22:06 21:14 23:31 22:03 22:58 22:31 21:34 21:41 21:43 22:02
938  Aasha Watkins 12 22:34 23:33 22:06 22:26 22:30 22:24 23:26
1,035  Sierra Espinoza 12 22:46 21:20 21:39 22:32 23:16 21:42 21:43 21:48 23:43 24:36 25:54
Hanna Kegerreis 10 23:48 24:16 25:07 24:43 23:40 23:26 23:04 24:27 23:24
Leslie Romero 12 24:34 25:07 25:24 25:02 24:33 24:44 24:29 24:25 24:08 24:11
Citlaly Sanchez 10 24:39 26:06 24:42 25:11 24:49 24:02 24:48 24:14
Nazareth Gonzalez 10 25:48 26:00 25:55 26:31 25:21 26:03 26:23 25:12 25:21 25:49




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 2.3% 20.0 610 0.0 2.3
Regionals 79.3% 7.1 186 0.1 2.2 13.0 39.5 22.3 2.2
Sectionals 100% 4.7 137 49.7 29.6 20.7



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jacqueline Hartman 57.3% 154.7 56.3% 57.0%
Madelin Nouel 57.0% 154.7 56.0% 56.8%
Aasha Watkins 5.8% 165.8 3.5% 4.2%
Sierra Espinoza 2.6% 168.6 0.3% 0.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jacqueline Hartman 100% 32.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.8 3.2 100.0% 100.0%
Madelin Nouel 100% 32.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.3 100.0% 100.0%
Aasha Watkins 100% 42.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0% 100.0%
Sierra Espinoza 100% 46.8 0.0 0.0 100.0% 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jacqueline Hartman 21.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.8 6.1 7.6 7.9 8.5 9.3 9.4 10.1 9.2 9.0
Madelin Nouel 21.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 4.3 6.0 7.0 8.2 9.2 9.1 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1
Aasha Watkins 27.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.7 4.0 6.7
Sierra Espinoza 29.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0